The Mana World Forums

I'm sharing some calculations which I did out of curiosity.

There is a 1 in 30 chance that Agostine will accept the White Fur for both the Winter Gloves and the Fur Boots.

If 'n' furs are submitted then probability of at least one of them getting accepted is 1 - (29/30)^n.

Odds will be in your favor at:
1 - (29/30)^n > 0.5
=> n > 20.4459
If u submit 20.4459 furs then odds will be like tossing a coin.

If u submit 30 furs then probability that at least 1 of them gets accepted, i.e. probability that not all of them get rejected is:
1 - (29/30)^30
=0.63833848653

White Furs are dropped by Fluffy at 8%. If 'x' fluffies are killed then for:
(1 - (0.08/30) )^x = 0.5
=> x = 259.583
Killing 259.583 fluffies for the gloves is like tossing a coin, in terms of probability.

I believe the one that always gets people is the drop rate of Souls and the graveyard quest on 027-2.
After that it's diseased heart drop rate.

I do find this interesting though.

wushin wrote:I believe the one that always gets people is the drop rate of Souls and the graveyard quest on 027-2.
After that it's diseased heart drop rate.

And the Forest Bow Quest for new players.
If seen quite a couple of people complaining about it already because it took them far more than 20 Raw Logs (I heard two times about >100 Raw Logs).
I even wrote this line in the wiki to at least lower the frustration a bit for them:

This makes this quest sometimes harder than it looks like, but even though Log Heads are easy to kill and therefore the recommended level for this quest is just 20, the reward, the Forest Bow, is currently the best bow in the game until level 90.

I'm writing the following for future readers, you both may already be knowing the following.

If chance of success (like an item getting accepted or monster dropping the item) is 1/x or p%, then number of trials needed to make odds same as tossing a coin is:

log base (x-1)/x of 0.5

In terms of p percentage it's:

log base (1-p%) of 0.5

It's log base (chance of failure) of 0.5

There's a 2% chance that Jack O Soul gets accepted. You can input on www.wolframalpha.com :
log base (1-2%) 0.5

If we do that there's 1 in 50 chance of Jack O Soul getting accepted then:
log base 49/50 0.5

Answer to both is 34.3096 .

There's a 1.2% chance that a zombie will drop diseased heart:
log base (1-1.2%) 0.5 = 57.415 .

Forest Bow Quest: log base 19/20 0.5 = 13.5134 .
It took me 3 or 4 logs to complete the quest
If sm1 doesn't succeed in 100 logs then as 100/13.5134 = 7.4 means he tossed coin approx. 7 times and it never came out to be head.

Nice
I'm horribly bad in math so I have can only look at the results.... but I like statistics.

Aritos wrote:It took me 3 or 4 logs to complete the quest

The second time I did this quest it took me ~60 Raw Logs, but the last time I needed just one... yeah, just 1 *was very lucky*

The rate on Souls is altered by the rate at which someone can kill a Jack'O.
being a rarer spawn and harder to kill it makes the drop more rare based on difficulty.

So the other factor is at what level can someone obtain X and at what rate.

As if I can only kill a Jack'O every X minutes vs. Logheads which one can kill relatively fast compared to that.

wushin wrote:The rate on Souls is altered by the rate at which someone can kill a Jack'O.
being a rarer spawn and harder to kill it makes the drop more rare based on difficulty.

So the other factor is at what level can someone obtain X and at what rate.

As if I can only kill a Jack'O every X minutes vs. Logheads which one can kill relatively fast compared to that.

Ya, one can measure the avg. time it's taking him to kill a particular monster.

By the way, like I calculated for Fluffy:

A Log Head drops a log at chance of 20%. Probability that a Log Head killing gets converted to Forest Bow is:
Probability of Log Head dropping log * Probability of log getting accepted
= (20/100) * (1/20)
= 1/100

As log base 99/100 0.5 = 68.9676, one needs to kill 69 Log Heads to turn the odds (of getting a Forest Bow) to more than 50%.