Unexpected Christmas monster -> "The Three-Headed-Mouboo"

[Dicekid]

Very rare, but I got some screenshots. Don't know if the drop chances for aqua ornament is higher then for normal mouboos, because I just met this one. You can see it staying around and then a few attacks... It also takes three times longer to kill this one, but it gets easier the more heads you killed...



Greetings,
Dicekid

P.S.: Don't be too serious....

[Amuk]

Nice, I too have encountered this mythical beast. Unlike you however, instead of killing it I decided to start a religion with it as the main figure head.

You are all welcome to join and worship the three-headed mouboo!

[meway]

I think if this is what I think lol you have 3% instead of 1% chance.

[TheBasilisk]

I think if this is what I think lol you have 3% instead of 1% chance.

Not quite. You have a 1.444444 (recurring) % chance.

That's 1% * ((1/3)^3)

I think those calculations are right. xD

[radiant]

That would be 13/900, which I don't see how you get from that calculation. Multiplying that way would give lower odds than that of a single monster, which is clearly wrong.

The correct odds in this case are 2.9701%, a bit less than the naive 3% because there's a chance that two of the three would both drop ornaments, and that outcome has to be treated as no better than a single drop.

[bigglesworth]

Buying three lottery tickets doesn't increase your odds of winning the lottery unless they sell a fixed number of tickets.

If it did exist, wouldn't the same odds of 'winning' an ornament from the hyrda-mouboo be the same as a single-headed mouboo, since there are an infinite amount of ornaments (until the quest ends)?

[enchilado]

Actually it does increase the odds of winning. The Lottery uses numbers, right? So you're covering more number combinations.

[DarkLord]

I believe this is fake. I can see sets of legs. That's just 3 mouboos.

[Crush]

I believe this is fake. I can see sets of legs. That's just 3 mouboos.

[meway]

lmao p owned

[DarkLord]

I believe this is fake. I can see sets of legs. That's just 3 mouboos.

...

[Dicekid]

Hi,

to get some light in the discussion and darkness of the theory of probabilities...
Assuming that the chances for one mouboo to drop an aqua is 1% (which means 0.01) and that we can deal every head like a single mouboo, which is a good assumtion but has to be proven to be correct...
Now the chances to get at least 1 (in words one) aqua includes the following three cases:

1. every head drops one aqua -> 0.01 x 0.01 x 0.01 = 0.000001
2. two of the heads drop one and the last one drops none-> 0.01 x 0.01 x 0.99 = 0.000099
this can happen three times (because we don't care which two heads drop the aqua, do we?)
-> 0.000099 x 3 = 0.000297
3. just one of the heads drops one and the other two drop nothing -> 0.01 x 0.99 x 0.99
obviously this also can happen in three cases (as stated above ) -> 0.009801 x 3 = 0.029403

Now because we would be happy with one, two or three aquas we add up all three and the result is:
0.029403 + 0.000297 + 0.000001 = 0.029701 which is 2.9701% which is a little bit less than 3% .

I hope you enjoyed the excourse in probabilities...

Greetings,
Dicekid

P.S.: I don't like to quote myself, but please don't be too serious...

EDIT: I recognised a tiny error in my calculation(which is no longer existing, so this here shows just another approach to calculate...). One has to calculate the chance that no aqua drops which is
0.99 x 0.99 x 0.99 = 0.970299 and then subtract this from 1 -> 0.029701 -> 2.9701%. I will think about how to get the same result the other way round or where the logical mistake was. But this one is at least correct. Because even if you fight a million mouboos there is a chance that you won't get any aqua from them and this would not be the case with the former calculation (as you can easily see...)
So sorry for the confusion...

2nd EDIT: Sorry... Ok, I corrected the things above, the red things are new and this is the correct way to calculate the correct possibility. I hope you don't mind....

[enchilado]

[JackDeth]

You know what?

In the time it took you guys to go through all this crap.....

...you could have found 3 aqua ornaments, leveled up 5 new characters, eaten lunch, gone to the bathroom, had a snack, drank a beer, ran for a government position as an elected official, saved the whales, solved world hunger, farted in someone's general direction, did the hokey-pokie, and then turned yourself around.

Just play the game.

Merry Christmas.

[Maxxie]

LOL dang Crush that was good Im still laughing ...... lmao, you too poison_ivy this is too much
...Oh and nice one Deth